The international community is labelling the killing of Oromo refugees as ‘Ethiopian migrants’. They ARE Oromo refugees who are fleeing political persecution. They endured a difficult journey by risking their lives via sea to find a safe haven. What a heartbreaking ending. Let’s do what we can to help the remaining refugees. The silence of many is deaf ranting, we WILL NOT BE SILENT!! #OromorefugeesinYemen #RIP
I am so relieved to hear that Jawar, Bekele, and Hamza have agreed to stand down from their hunger striker after 40 long days. They endured 40 days of hunger to demand (1) an end to their unjust and politically driven detention; (2) an end to the systematic disenfranchisement of the Oromo people, the single largest in the country and endured historic humiliation and disrespect in the hands of subsequent Ethiopian governments, and (3) to demand an end to the harassment and abuse of members and supporters of the Oromo political opposition – the OLF and the OFC.
The hunger strike did not achieve its goals. Their demands were not addressed. But they have made their points and re-activated Oromo opposition politics, particularly in the West. Most importantly, they have forced key regional actors and the international community to take note and to recognize that this government offers no coherent and workable vision of the future and that the forthcoming election is yet again another ritual exercise the outcome of which is already predetermined. Coupled with the crisis in the North and West of the country, and complete lack of consensus on the future direction of the country, many now see the elections scheduled for June are the wrong priorities for the country and going ahead with them would further exacerbate the already deep and ever-sharpening tension in the country. There is more and I might write more at a later point.
As for the ruling elite and the prosperity party, I think they inadvertently revealed their true colors. I have argued on several occasions that the arrest, detention, and trial of Jawar, Bekele, and others following Haacaaluu’s assassination were purely political. That political decision can only be made by the PM. In other words, Abiy made the decision to remove these individuals from the political space, and the Attorney General was tasked with the responsibility to come up with a legal framework within which their arrest, detention, and trial could be rationalized, legitimized, and justified. And when the AG does that, he has to construct a politically expedient charge that is appealing to the target audience: the West and certain segments of the Ethiopian society. As William Kunstler once said, all authoritarian and totalitarian regimes know that it is better to do these things through some pretense of law and legality than otherwise (William Kunstler once said this).
The behavior of the Attorney General and his Office during these 40 days is worth noting. The AG appealed a decision by the lower court allowing prisoners to receive critical life-saving medical care at least on three occasions. Among the reasons the AG used to challenge the rulings of the lower court is that allowing the prisoners (high-profile members of the political opposition) to receive medical care at an institution in which they feel safe and secure is a violation of the constitutional right to equality. In other words, the ruling by the courts to allow medical treatment of Jawar, Bekele, and Hamza in a safe and secure medical establishment would be contrary to the government’s constitutional obligations to ensure equality of treatment (mainly referring here to other prisoners).
This is the dumbest legal argument I have ever heard, and it was very sad to see Gedion, someone I have known for nearly two decades and always considered a decent human being, would stoop this low, and put his credibility on the line, to defend the indefensible. It became quite clear that Gedion is now, unfortunately, just another cog in PP’s political machine, acting merely as a government lawyer, putting loyalty to the party before loyalty to the law, and with no regard to his duty to ensure respect for the law.
The other justification was security and public safety – that most resilient discursive instrument that can be invoked by authorities without the need to back it up with a shred of tangible evidence. That was the basis on which the Supreme Court granted the AG’s wishes. The cassation bench reversed that decision and as we have seen over the last few days, the security concern they conjured out of thin air did not materialize. It was a lie, from the beginning. In treating these political prisoners with utmost callousness, and indifference to public opinion, the authorities revealed the moral failings of key actors, and public authority as a whole has lost its conscience and ability to exercise a sober and reasoned judgement. In mistreating their adversaries using the power of law, they exposed themselves to the judgement of the very public in whose name they claim the authority to prosecute and condemn.
I am delighted that they agreed to stand down. Continuing with the hunger strike beyond this point would have been disproportionately harmful to them. I am grateful for everyone who worked so hard, both from the front and from behind the scenes, in securing their agreement. I know several people who have been working very hard over the last two weeks to avert an imminent calamity and they all deserve our thanks. I hear that Derartu’s final intervention made the ultimate difference – How can one say no to the Queen making justified and reasonable demands?!
Gareen finciltootaa kun nama Joseph Tuka jedhamuun kan hoogganamu fi lafa kutaa Blue Nile, naannoo daangaa Itoophiyaa fi Sudaan kibbaa keessa kan socho’uu dha.
Abiy_Ahmed has no option but to negotiate with TPLF, and that’s what the West, especially the United States, is going for.
As of now, Abiy doesn’t want to negotiate with TPLF. He and his partners in war (Eritrea and Amhara elites) wanted not just to defeat TPLF, they also wanted to eliminate it from the face of the earth. They defeated but they couldn’t eliminate it. They can’t! Here is how Abiy will be forced to negotiate with TPLF:
The international community will push for the withdrawal of Eritrean and Amhara forces from Tigray. This will create a new reality on the ground. Once the Eritrean and Amhara forces are withdrawn, the Ethiopian military alone cannot fight TPLF fighters and control possible protests in cities and towns across Tigray simultaneously.
The United States and Europe will stop more financial aid to Ethiopia. This will create economic strains which may result in protests against the government in other parts of the country. The talk of war in Ethiopia has already weakened tourism and flow of Foreign Direct Investment.
Abiy Ahmed decided to hold elections hoping to get electoral legitimacy. But the withdrawal of major Oromo political parties from election has dashed his hopes already. If he doesn’t agree to negotiate, the West will stir violence in Addis Ababa and other places in connection with the elections.
External forces especially Egypt and Sudan will tighten the noose on Abiy. He cannot afford to fight a war on multiple fronts, so he will give into the pressure of the West.
TPLF has won one major victory over Abiy; it managed to make the situation in Tigray an international issue. Today the West, the international media, human rights organizations, the United Nations, and the European Union are working on behalf of the people of Tigray and TPLF. The African Union will join them very soon. Sudan has sided with TPLF, and it looks likes Kenya will do the same. There is no time in history when Ethiopia as a country lost in diplomacy in international arena. Not even during the Italian occupation. So, Abiy will be forced to sit down for negotiation with TPLF! Under any negotiation, the relations between Tigray and Ethiopia will not go back to the same situation it was before the war. Tigray will not remain a federal state anymore. It will be CONFEDERATED. Here is the catch though! Abiy Ahmed’s partners in war (Eritrea and Amhara elites) will not be happy about negotiations with TPLF. Amhara elites will cry. Eritrea will be disappointed. This may lead to another war. As I said in one of my previous posts, Abiy will lose his hands if he submits to American preaure, and he will lose his hands and legs if he refuses. So, he better give into the pressure. At least he will have prosthetic hands!
I want to leave my readers pondering the following questions:
Why has Abiy Ahmed lost the support of Lemma Megerssa, Jawar Mohamed, and the Oromo people he had two years ago?
Why has he lost the support the West (the United States and Europe) he was enjoying just months ago?
Why has he lost the support of many Ethiopians including Amharas?
According to a Harvard study, Afan Oromo is the 3rd Largest language in Africa, next to Swahili and Hausa. It has speakers not only in Oromia but also in Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Egypt, and other parts of the world. That’s why Afan Oromo should be a national working language. Here is the link to the whole article from Harvard University. https://scholar.harvard.edu/erena/oromo-language-afaan-oromoo